Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Accurate short-term streamflow and flood forecasting are critical for mitigating river flood impacts, especially given the increasing climate variability. Machine learning-based streamflow forecasting relies on large streamflow datasets derived from rating curves. Uncertainties in rating curve modeling could introduce errors to the streamflow data and affect the forecasting accuracy. This study proposes a streamflow forecasting method that addresses these data errors, enhancing the accuracy of river flood forecasting and flood modeling, thereby reducing flood-related risk. A convolutional recurrent neural network is used to capture spatiotemporal patterns, coupled with residual error learning and forecasting. The neural network outperforms commonly used forecasting models over 1-6 hours of forecasting horizons, and the residual error learners can further correct the residual errors. This provides a more reliable tool for river flood forecasting and climate adaptation in this critical 1-6 hour time window for flood risk mitigation efforts.

We study how well one can recover sparse principal components of a data matrix using a sketch formed from a few of its elements. We show that for a wide class of optimization problems, if the sketch is close (in the spectral norm) to the original data matrix, then one can recover a near optimal solution to the optimization problem by using the sketch.

Pienso, a machine learning platform for non-programmers, has closed a $2.1 million seed round. Led by Eniac Ventures, with participation from SoftTech VC, Indicator Ventures and E14 Fund, Pienso is focused on democratizing machine learning for domain experts who are non-programmers with no technical or data scientist experience. The funding allows the company to scale operations. "Investment by large enterprises in machine learning is rapidly accelerating as corporations spin up massive data lakes to garner insights into their business. However, it is costly, challenging to integrate and before now required data scientists on staff," said Vic Singh, Indian American general partner at Eniac.

We study how well one can recover sparse principal componentsof a data matrix using a sketch formed from a few of its elements. We show that for a wide class of optimization problems,if the sketch is close (in the spectral norm) to the original datamatrix, then one can recover a near optimal solution to the optimizationproblem by using the sketch. In particular, we use this approach toobtain sparse principal components and show that for \math{m} data pointsin \math{n} dimensions,\math{O(\epsilon^{-2}\tilde k\max\{m,n\})} elements gives an\math{\epsilon}-additive approximation to the sparse PCA problem(\math{\tilde k} is the stable rank of the data matrix).We demonstrate our algorithms extensivelyon image, text, biological and financial data.The results show that not only are we able to recover the sparse PCAs from the incomplete data, but by using our sparse sketch, the running timedrops by a factor of five or more.

There is a widespread need for statistical methods that can analyze high-dimensional datasets with- out imposing restrictive or opaque modeling assumptions. This paper describes a domain-general data analysis method called CrossCat. CrossCat infers multiple non-overlapping views of the data, each consisting of a subset of the variables, and uses a separate nonparametric mixture to model each view. CrossCat is based on approximately Bayesian inference in a hierarchical, nonparamet- ric model for data tables. This model consists of a Dirichlet process mixture over the columns of a data table in which each mixture component is itself an independent Dirichlet process mixture over the rows; the inner mixture components are simple parametric models whose form depends on the types of data in the table. CrossCat combines strengths of mixture modeling and Bayesian net- work structure learning. Like mixture modeling, CrossCat can model a broad class of distributions by positing latent variables, and produces representations that can be efficiently conditioned and sampled from for prediction. Like Bayesian networks, CrossCat represents the dependencies and independencies between variables, and thus remains accurate when there are multiple statistical signals. Inference is done via a scalable Gibbs sampling scheme; this paper shows that it works well in practice. This paper also includes empirical results on heterogeneous tabular data of up to 10 million cells, such as hospital cost and quality measures, voting records, unemployment rates, gene expression measurements, and images of handwritten digits. CrossCat infers structure that is consistent with accepted findings and common-sense knowledge in multiple domains and yields predictive accuracy competitive with generative, discriminative, and model-free alternatives.

We study how well one can recover sparse principal components of a data matrix using a sketch formed from a few of its elements. We show that for a wide class of optimization problems, if the sketch is close (in the spectral norm) to the original data matrix, then one can recover a near optimal solution to the optimization problem by using the sketch. In particular, we use this approach to obtain sparse principal components and show that for \math{m} data points in \math{n} dimensions, \math{O(\epsilon^{-2}\tilde k\max\{m,n\})} elements gives an \math{\epsilon}-additive approximation to the sparse PCA problem (\math{\tilde k} is the stable rank of the data matrix). We demonstrate our algorithms extensively on image, text, biological and financial data. The results show that not only are we able to recover the sparse PCAs from the incomplete data, but by using our sparse sketch, the running time drops by a factor of five or more.

This paper is part of a larger project to determine how to build agent-based cognitive models capable of initial associative intelligence. Our method here is to take McClelland’s 1981 “Jets and Sharks” dataset and rebuild it using a nonlinear dynamic system with an eye toward determining which parameters are necessary to govern the interactivity of agents in a multi-agent cognitive system. A few number of parameters are suggested concerning diffusion and infusion values, which are basically elementary forms of information entropy, and multi-dimensional overlap from properties to objects and then from objects back to the properties that define them. While no agent-based model is presented, the success of the dynamic systems that are presented here suggest strong starting points for further research in building cognitive complex adaptive systems.